{"id":22163,"date":"2020-03-26T20:17:59","date_gmt":"2020-03-26T20:17:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/arknews.org\/?p=22163"},"modified":"2020-03-26T20:43:51","modified_gmt":"2020-03-26T20:43:51","slug":"some-191000-arkansans-may-need-hospital-care-for-coronavirus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arknews.org\/index.php\/2020\/03\/26\/some-191000-arkansans-may-need-hospital-care-for-coronavirus\/","title":{"rendered":"Some 191,000 Arkansans may need hospital care for coronavirus"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"\">Some 908,900 Arkansans may become infected with the novel coronavirus over the course of the next six months, according to an epidemiological model of the spread of COVID-19 in Arkansas provided by the Arkansas Hospital Association to its members. Among those who become infected, an estimated 190,800 Arkansans may need hospital care and 41,400 may need to be hospitalized in intensive care units in the next six months, according to the projections.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">The model, which was obtained by the Arkansas Nonprofit News Network and which the AHA later confirmed it produced, assumes a statewide 40 percent infection rate over the course of six months and puts hospitalization at the peak of the pandemic \u2014 in June \u2014 at 12,720 beds. There are around 8,400 staffed hospital beds in Arkansas.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">The AHA\u2019s numbers were based on a model designed by infectious disease epidemiologists at Harvard University.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Asked about the projections on Thursday, Governor Hutchinson said he and Secretary of Health Dr. Nathaniel Smith had spent a lot of time on modeling.<\/p>\n<p>\"The first thing you realize is that there are a lot of different models that are out there,\" he said. \"We\u2019re learning day-by-day more information. We're going to continue that effort. When we have confidence on it, we\u2019ll act on it.\"<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">The Arkansas Department of Health was making new calculations Thursday, spokeswoman Meg Mirivel said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Governor Hutchinson also reiterated a previous prediction that 1,000 people may be hospitalized with the coronavirus at the peak of the pandemic in Arkansas.<\/p>\n<p>\"If we do all the right things and we take the right protective measures, then when we get to the peak we\u2019re probably looking at 1,000 individuals hospitalized,\" he said. \"The key thing is that we do the right thing. As it changes, if we see it increasing at a faster rate, if we don\u2019t see the public doing what they need to be doing, we can adjust accordingly.\"<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">The AHA model\u2019s 40 percent infection rate is based on the \u201ccontinuation of moderate, primarily voluntary social distancing measures.\u201d Arkansas has closed certain things \u2014 schools, restaurants, bars, salons, park visitor centers, tattoo parlors \u2014 but Governor Hutchinson has been reluctant to close manufacturing and other businesses. Restaurants and bars are still allowed to offer take-out.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">The figures in the AHA model assume a decrease in baseline occupancy rates at hospitals because of the pause in elective procedures. They are \u201care informed by the speed of epidemic growth observed so far in Arkansas, current public health practice and social distancing measures in the state, research on the behavior of novel viruses in previous pandemics, modeling specific to the spread of SARS-COV-2, and observations of the spread of the virus in other jurisdictions,\u201d the report says.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">Peggy Abbott, CEO of Ouachita County Medical Center in Camden, participated in a conference call with AHA members and the health department Thursday.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">\u201cThe potential for the surge numbers to be greater than we\u2019ve been publicly preparing for has always been a possibility,\u201d she said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">She commended state leaders for taking the pandemic seriously and said she believed people in the state were complying with state directives on social distancing and limiting group gatherings.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">\u201cI think that has helped slow things. I think [state leaders] have been matter of fact and clear with what the potential is and tried to remain calm and not create panic or fear. That\u2019s what we've tried to do is keep a calm, conservative approach to it.\u201d<\/span><span style=\"\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"\">UAMS Health CEO Dr. Stephen Mette said the AHA model needs \u201cmore assessment,\u201d Leslie Taylor, vice chancellor for communications and marketing, said today.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">UAMS has seven COVID-19 patients, some of which are in ICU. The medical center has 51 ICU beds and 31 are occupied. Taylor said that the hospital has prepared for additional COVID-19 patients by outfitting other rooms with negative pressure (keeping airflow within the room) and equipment needed to treat respiratory illness.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">In confirming the report, AHA spokeswoman Ashley Warren said the projections, distributed to member hospital leadership for planning purposes, indicate the hospital association\u2019s concerns \u201care not misplaced.\u201d She cited a Kaiser Family Foundation study that found that 47 percent of Arkansans are at a higher risk of serious illness if infected with the novel coronavirus \u2014 higher than the national average \u2014 because of our population\u2019s \u201cunderlying health conditions.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em>Lindsey Millar contributed reporting.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em style=\"font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;\">This reporting is courtesy of the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.arknews.org\/\">Arkansas Nonprofit News Network<\/a>, an independent, nonpartisan news project dedicated to producing journalism that matters to Arkansans.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Some 908,900 Arkansans may become infected with the novel coronavirus over the course of the next six months, according to an epidemiological model of the spread of COVID-19 in Arkansas provided by the Arkansas Hospital Association to its members today. Among those who become infected, an estimated 190,800 Arkansans may need hospital care and 41,400\u00a0 may need to be hospitalized in intensive care units in the next six months, according to the projections.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":18690,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[111],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22163","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-health-care"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v17.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Some 191,000 Arkansans may need hospital care for coronavirus - Arkansas Nonprofit News Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/index.php\/2020\/03\/26\/some-191000-arkansans-may-need-hospital-care-for-coronavirus\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Some 191,000 Arkansans may need hospital care for coronavirus - Arkansas Nonprofit News Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Some 908,900 Arkansans may become infected with the novel coronavirus over the course of the next six months, according to an epidemiological model of the spread of COVID-19 in Arkansas provided by the Arkansas Hospital Association to its members today. Among those who become infected, an estimated 190,800 Arkansans may need hospital care and 41,400\u00a0 may need to be hospitalized in intensive care units in the next six months, according to the projections.\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/index.php\/2020\/03\/26\/some-191000-arkansans-may-need-hospital-care-for-coronavirus\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Arkansas Nonprofit News Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-03-26T20:17:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-03-26T20:43:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/arknews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/IMG_8407.jpg?fit=1620%2C1080\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1620\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1080\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Leslie Peacock\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Arkansas Nonprofit News Network\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/\",\"sameAs\":[],\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/#logo\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/annn_logo.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/annn_logo.png\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":900,\"caption\":\"Arkansas Nonprofit News Network\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/#logo\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/\",\"name\":\"Arkansas Nonprofit News Network\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/index.php\/2020\/03\/26\/some-191000-arkansans-may-need-hospital-care-for-coronavirus\/#primaryimage\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/IMG_8407-1170x780.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/IMG_8407-1170x780.jpg\",\"width\":1620,\"height\":1080,\"caption\":\"Governor Hutchinson\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/index.php\/2020\/03\/26\/some-191000-arkansans-may-need-hospital-care-for-coronavirus\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/index.php\/2020\/03\/26\/some-191000-arkansans-may-need-hospital-care-for-coronavirus\/\",\"name\":\"Some 191,000 Arkansans may need hospital care for coronavirus - 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