{"id":22808,"date":"2021-06-06T06:01:27","date_gmt":"2021-06-06T11:01:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arknews.org\/?p=22808"},"modified":"2021-06-06T06:01:27","modified_gmt":"2021-06-06T11:01:27","slug":"tornadoes-increasing-in-arkansas-due-to-climate-change-researcher-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arknews.org\/index.php\/2021\/06\/06\/tornadoes-increasing-in-arkansas-due-to-climate-change-researcher-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Tornadoes increasing in Arkansas due to climate change, researcher says"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_22809\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-22809\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-22809\" src=\"http:\/\/arknews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Bridger-Place-edit-1170x731.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"400\" srcset=\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Bridger-Place-edit-1170x731.jpeg 1170w, https:\/\/arknews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Bridger-Place-edit-700x438.jpeg 700w, https:\/\/arknews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Bridger-Place-edit-768x480.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/arknews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Bridger-Place-edit.jpeg 1440w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-22809\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Kathie Pace's neighborhood in Jonesboro after the March 28, 2020 tornado (Image courtesy Anthony Coy, Craighead County Office of Emergency Management)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"\">On the afternoon of Saturday, March 28, 2020, Kathie Pace and her family hid in a stairwell as a tornado slashed through their northeast Jonesboro subdivision.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">\u201cI heard the windows shattering,\u201d she said recently. \u201cLater, we found someone\u2019s turbine from their roof in our living room. We were picking up pieces of glass for months.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">\u201cIt only lasted three to five minutes,\u201d Pace said. \u201cBut when we went outside \u2026 wow.\u201d The tornado, rated an EF3 on a zero-to-five scale measuring intensity, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2020\/03\/29\/weather\/tornadoes-severe-storms\/index.html\">cut a path through the heart of Jonesboro<\/a>, injuring at least 22. <\/span><span style=\"\">It destroyed homes and businesses across the city and severely damaged the Turtle Creek Mall. (There were no fatalities, perhaps in part because many people were at home due to COVID-19 restrictions.)\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">Pace said she was lucky. Her house only received about $30,000 worth of damage, including the cost of a new roof. Other homeowners had to rebuild from the slab up. <\/span><span style=\"\">Fifteen months later, the homes in her subdivision are all rebuilt, she said, but at least three neighbors have added storm shelters.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Some research suggests such an addition may be a wise investment in Arkansas. Tornadoes appear to be on the increase in the mid-South in recent years, thanks to climate change and shifting weather patterns across the continent.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">The classic \u201cTornado Alley\u201d region of the U.S. is the southern Great Plains. Powerful storms ravage north Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas as cold air from the Rocky Mountains collides with the heat of the Plains.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">But some scientists have noticed a recent eastern shift in that pattern, possibly placing parts of Arkansas in the bull\u2019s eye of more destructive storms, along with Alabama, Mississippi and western Tennessee. While tornadoes are still abundant on the Plains,<\/span> <span style=\"\">meteorologists have recorded an increase in the number and intensity of twisters in an area some refer to as \u201cDixie Alley.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">Victor Gensini, a professor of meteorology at Northern Illinois University, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41612-018-0048-2\">authored a paper about the shift in 2018<\/a>. Since then, he said, the trend is continuing. He credits increased drought conditions in the western U.S., which push the \u201cdry line,\u201d a boundary that separates moist and dry air masses and is a factor in creating severe weather.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">\u201cThe southern Great Plains are drying out,\u201d Gensini said. \u201cElevated air is moving the dry line. The drought is pushing everything to the east.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">The U.S Drought Monitor, a weekly report compiled by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska at Lincoln, predicts the West may see the second worst drought this year in 1,200 years. Some areas of California may see irreparable damage following winter temperatures of 5 to 15 degrees above normal and a lack of snowfall.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">The dry atmospheric conditions create a dome of high pressure over the western U.S., causing the weather systems that can produce tornadoes to begin forming further east. Meanwhile, drought in the Dakotas is contributing to the jet stream dipping further south. The jet stream, an atmospheric current of frigid Arctic air, is another ingredient in forming tornado-producing supercell storms.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">Many tornadoes still blast through Tornado Alley, but Gensini\u2019s research says there has been a significant decrease in both reports of tornadoes and tornadic atmospheric conditions in portions of Texas, Oklahoma and other Plains states. The inverse is true in the Southeast, he said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">\u201cTornadoes are tied to underlying moisture,\u201d Gensini said, which the Gulf of Mexico provides in abundance. \u201cYou have the drought pushing the jet stream further into the Gulf states. More moisture means [inclement weather] activity lights up. It\u2019s creating a new trough for these storms to line up.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">Gensini blames manmade climate change for the shift. \u201cWe are clearly warming, and it\u2019s what\u2019s causing the movement of tornadoes,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">To be clear, the South has always had its share of tornadoes. Arkansas\u2019s only documented EF5 tornado \u2014 the highest on the intensity scale \u2014 formed south of Batesville nearly a century ago. Known as the \u201cSneed Tornado,\u201d it ripped through Independence, Jackson and Lawrence counties on April 10, 1929, killing 23. (Some meteorologists believe the EF4 tornado that hit Vilonia and Mayflower on April 27, 2014, may have also increased to an EF5 at times during its 41-mile long trek.)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">But Gensini says there\u2019s been a \u201csignificant increase\u201d in tornadic activity in Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee and Mississippi in recent decades. <\/span><b><\/b>Such a measurement is not as straightforward as simply counting the number of recorded tornadoes, which vary in terms of intensity, duration and other metrics, complicating year-to-year comparisons.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">Gensini tracked the number of tornado reports from 1979 to 2010 for his study but also used an index called the Significant Tornado Parameter, which monitors the atmospheric ingredients favorable for the formation of tornadoes. (The Weather Channel created a similar measurement called the Tornado Condition Index, or TORCON, which attempts to measure the chance of a tornado forming within a 50-mile radius of a given location.)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">Gensini acknowledged his research is somewhat hindered by limited data. Detailed, accurate tornado statistics that include location, strength and path only go back to the 1950s.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">\u201cArkansas and other states have long tornado histories,\u201d he said. \u201cWe are only seeing a portion of that.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">Justin Condry, an National Weather Service meteorologist in North Little Rock, said he\u2019s also noticed an increase in powerful storms in the South.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">\u201cIt seems we\u2019ve been issuing more warnings than before,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">The state has averaged 33 twisters a year for the past 70 years, Condry said. However, that number increases to an average of 45 per year when tallying the last 10 years alone.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">Last year, Arkansas recorded 45 tornadoes. There were 41 in 2019 and 36 in 2018. This year, as of June 4, the state has seen 16.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">Condry said the National Weather Service, while not<\/span> declaring<span style=\"\"> climate change is the cause, does agree with Gensini\u2019s findings that a shift is occurring.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">\u201cTo some extent, I think it is global warming,\u201d Condry said. \u201cBut it\u2019s a controversial topic. We don\u2019t have weather data that goes back hundreds of years to show that this is either manmade and new or if it is a cyclical, long-range weather pattern.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">\u201cThere is no denying, though, that the \u2018Dixie Alley\u2019 area is looking more impressive,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_22810\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-22810\" style=\"width: 1003px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22810\" src=\"http:\/\/arknews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Race-St.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1003\" height=\"752\" srcset=\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Race-St.jpeg 1003w, https:\/\/arknews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Race-St-700x525.jpeg 700w, https:\/\/arknews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Race-St-768x576.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1003px) 100vw, 1003px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-22810\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Damage to businesses on Race Street in Jonesboro following the March 2020 tornado (Image courtesy Anthony Coy, Craighead County Office of Emergency Management)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"\">Tornadoes in the South may be more dangerous, Gensini said, partly because they are harder to see. Trees and hills impede views of the landscape, unlike on the barren Plains. Also, tornadoes are more likely to form under cover of darkness: Because the area generally has higher temperatures during the day, the cooling shift \u2014 one of the required ingredients in producing twisters \u2014 often doesn\u2019t occur until well into the night, when people are asleep.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">The South is also more densely populated than the Great Plains. Add in that manufactured homes are more abundant, and it creates a recipe for disaster, Gensini said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">\u201cManufactured homes are a huge deal for casualties,\u201d he said. \u201cA vast majority of fatalities and injuries occur when mobile homes are hit by tornadoes. There is a succinct vulnerability in the Southeast to storms because of that.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">\u00a0\u201cThey are forming in the most vulnerable area,\u201d he said. \u201cArkansas is in the footprint of this change.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">In Jonesboro, there are still reminders of the wrath of the storm that produced the EF3 tornado last March. Debris lies scattered in a field along Old Bridger Road, and thin sheets of metal can be seen wrapped around tree branches.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">\u201cI think that tornado caught us off guard,\u201d admitted Anthony Coy, the director of emergency services for Craighead County. \u201cThe criteria that day did not meet the requirements to pre-activate our emergency plans.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">Just before the Jonesboro tornado touched down, the National Weather Service\u2019s Storm Prediction Center upgraded the area\u2019s possibility of severe weather from \u201cslight\u2019 to \u201cenhanced.\u201d Since then, Coy said, the Craighead County Office of Emergency Management has activated its emergency operations center five times for storm warnings in the county.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">\u201cI don\u2019t remember having this many warnings in such a short time,\u201d he said. \u201cI think as a result of that Jonesboro tornado, we learned we need to be more ready for any sudden changes.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">To Kathie Pace, the Jonesboro resident who weathered the storm in her stairwell, severe weather is nothing new.<\/span><b>\u00a0<\/b><span style=\"\">She was working at a jewelry store in the old Indian Mall on Caraway Road, she said, when a May 27, 1973, tornado flattened much of the southern half of Jonesboro, including portions of the mall.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">\u201cI should be more nervous when clouds come,\u201d Pace said. \u201cBut I already felt that we lived in \u2018tornado alley.\u2019 Growing up, it seemed like every March or April, we\u2019d get tornadoes.\"<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"\">\u201cIf you live here in Arkansas long enough, you\u2019ll probably see one,\u201d she said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i>This story is courtesy of\u00a0<\/i><a href=\"http:\/\/arknews.org\/\"><i>the Arkansas Nonprofit News Network<\/i><\/a><i>, an independent, nonpartisan news project dedicated to producing journalism that matters to Arkansans.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On the afternoon of Saturday, March 28, 2020, Kathie Pace and her family hid in a stairwell as a tornado slashed through their northeast Jonesboro subdivision. \u201cI heard the windows shattering,\u201d she said recently. \u201cLater, we found someone\u2019s turbine from their roof in our living room. We were picking up pieces of glass for months.\u201d [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":22809,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[353],"tags":[356,358,359,357,354,355],"class_list":["post-22808","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment","tag-climate-change","tag-justin-condry","tag-national-weather-service","tag-severe-weather","tag-tornadoes","tag-victor-gensini"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v17.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Tornadoes increasing in Arkansas due to climate change, researcher says - Arkansas Nonprofit News Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/index.php\/2021\/06\/06\/tornadoes-increasing-in-arkansas-due-to-climate-change-researcher-says\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tornadoes increasing in Arkansas due to climate change, researcher says - Arkansas Nonprofit News Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"On the afternoon of Saturday, March 28, 2020, Kathie Pace and her family hid in a stairwell as a tornado slashed through their northeast Jonesboro subdivision. \u201cI heard the windows shattering,\u201d she said recently. \u201cLater, we found someone\u2019s turbine from their roof in our living room. We were picking up pieces of glass for months.\u201d [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/index.php\/2021\/06\/06\/tornadoes-increasing-in-arkansas-due-to-climate-change-researcher-says\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Arkansas Nonprofit News Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-06-06T11:01:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/arknews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Bridger-Place-edit.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1440\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"900\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Kenneth Heard\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Arkansas Nonprofit News Network\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/\",\"sameAs\":[],\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/#logo\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/annn_logo.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/annn_logo.png\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":900,\"caption\":\"Arkansas Nonprofit News Network\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/#logo\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/\",\"name\":\"Arkansas Nonprofit News Network\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/index.php\/2021\/06\/06\/tornadoes-increasing-in-arkansas-due-to-climate-change-researcher-says\/#primaryimage\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Bridger-Place-edit.jpeg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Bridger-Place-edit.jpeg\",\"width\":1440,\"height\":900,\"caption\":\"Kathie Pace's subdivision was one of several Jonesboro neighborhoods damaged by a tornado on March 28, 2020 (Image courtesy Anthony Coy, Craighead County Office of Emergency Management)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/index.php\/2021\/06\/06\/tornadoes-increasing-in-arkansas-due-to-climate-change-researcher-says\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/arknews.org\/index.php\/2021\/06\/06\/tornadoes-increasing-in-arkansas-due-to-climate-change-researcher-says\/\",\"name\":\"Tornadoes increasing in Arkansas due to climate change, researcher says - 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